- January 8th, 2010
From the column "Physicists are still joke"
Swan, Cancer and Pike
Daily Horoscope for participants
And so, the Fermi paradox or paradox of silence in the universe. If another reason has arisen not only here but on other planets orbiting other suns, that is why they are still here?
Alleged that the first issue raised by Enrico Fermi edge in the far 1950 for lunch with colleagues, he saw a newspaper cartoon of aliens. It all started with a joke. But in the end, as happens with physicists, banter turned into a serious question: "Where are they?" - Asked Fermi, according to legend.
It is surprising but, on reflection, you know: Anyone who seriously aware of this "hole" in its outlook, has to "mend" its one of three possible ways. The choice depends on what you personally are willing to sacrifice firstIn order to break and properly close the logical inconsistencies in your picture of the universe.
The three "facts" are closed in a loop-like paradox Penrose triangle:
"Fact 1" Life in the Universe there is always and everywhere, reaching the stage of highly developed intelligence. P1 = 1 (say "Truth")
"Fact 2" Any highly developed mind creates a shock wave of settlement, filling the entire galaxy, and then the universe. P2 = 1 (True)
"Fact 3" The solar system, and the galaxy around us empty. They are not! P3 = 1 (True)
P1* P2* P3= 1 * 1 * 1 = 1
but we then seeThat all three statements contradict each other, that is, we should get a "false" -- 0!
Of course, each of the three "facts" is not clearly established fact. It's just very similar to the findings of the truth. Either of them can be questioned. What we are doing, getting rid of contradictions. But whatever we invent, break the curse of the logical incompatibility of the three statements can be only one of three ways:
A Acknowledge 2 and 3 but did not admit 1. And then I will provisionally call "Swan.
P1* P2* P3= 0 * 1 * 1 = 0
B recognize the 1 and 3 but did not recognize 2. Then you will call "Pike.
P1* P2* P3= 1 * 0 * 1 = 0
C recognize 1 and 2 but did not recognize 3. Then you - "Rak.
P1* P2* P3= 1 * 1 * 0 = 0
Other options simply do not. Of course, there may be intermediate reels (you think wrong, two or even all three parcels), but, honestly, be honest: all the diversity reasonable explanation for the Fermi Paradox eventually reduce to these three, pronounced, "Bend", options, because they can be obtained cost-effectively, the refusal of one "fact".
Let's look at each option separately and in detail.
Start with yourself.
I just - a bright representative of one of these "animals".
While on a horoscope I have cancer in the pose of a lion (not "a lion in the attitude of cancer!"), I prefer to resolve the Fermi paradox for option "Swan". Of course, I can not be absolutely sure that we observed the universe really has no other signs of intelligence ( "Fact 3"), but I am still inclined to agree. For me this chance is very high. Say P3 = 0.99 ... 9 ~ 1 (no matter how many nines there, it is important that their number is finite, some NAnd I can have a chance anywhere more "rounded" to the unit).
Further, the idea of what is really intelligent civilization should eventually generate a shock wave of the Mind, covering the whole galaxy, for me, too obvious. Either we drove a shock wave or we vymrem. Third simply not given! Hence, the same applies to the aliens. But then where are they?
I do not want here to argue about the inevitability of such a wave. I'm not going to convince you of this. But I want to assure you that I am in this very strongly convinced. That is, the subjective probability of recognition of my "Fact 2" is also very high: P2 = 0.99 ... 9 ~ 1. If the mind in the galaxy has already appeared before us, then we should already faced a wave! Even millions of years ago!
So, faced with the Fermi paradox, "The Swan", reluctantly, simply to give up "fact 1". Have to sacrifice more than this. I just have to assume that life in this universe - a rare phenomenon. Intelligent life - all unique. It is possible that in our galaxy we are really alone, at least, the first reasonable. That is why I so interested in such things as the idea of the Great Filter. If empty galaxy to explain the paradox of low, I am ready to acknowledge our loneliness, even in the visible part of the universe! In general, the density of reason in our universe must be such that the wave we just had not reached. Perhaps it is, somewhere in St. 100000. years, or at least the end of 200 ...
That is, "The Swan" to save their values, their vision of the world, ready to sacrifice the "fact" the plurality of inhabited worlds. Will outline the subjective probability of a dead universe "as follows: P1 = 0.00 ... 01 ~ 0 (no matter how many "0", it is important that these numbers are a finite number of N). Then the probabilistic solution of Fermi's paradox "Swan" can be written as the product of probabilities:
P1* P2* P3= 0.00 ... 01 * 0.99 * 0.99 ... 9 ... 9 ~ 0 * 1 * 1 ~ 0
When I use the tilde "rounding" the probability that can be considered as "cancellation of" residual doubt "on faith" (but really doubt, skepticism of course always present).
The dilemma of "Swan" on the Fermi paradox is most acute: it is necessary to recognize either the rest of the world blank (or dumb) or recognize that the world is filled with highly-life, but then the inheritance of any civilization - death before reaching adulthood (waves). Last altogether too unpleasant, so the choice is obvious. Let the world a better place to be empty as the sky! He is ready to survive! That's what did he and "Swan".
On one hand, "Pike" as "The Swan" with high probability recognizes the lack of in our solar system, and the Galaxy, traces of another reason. That is, in the case of "Pike" P3 ~ 1. She is ready to admit that they are not. But on the other hand, "Pike" is not ready to admit their loneliness in the universe. That it simply can not sacrifice! That is, for her and P1 ~ 1. Therefore, the "Pike" prefers to abandon the "fact 2. Her answer, no matter what theory is not create, will be reduced to this: and no one, nowhere, never will be massively fly! No shock was and never will be!
Judge for yourself sensibly, says "Pike." First, interstellar flight - it is extremely difficult, we can say prohibitively complicated. Even for super-civilizations. Secondly, even if it is possible, what reason, albeit supermind, to organize such a shock wave here? Why did he have extensive development? Capture of new resources, all large and big spaces? Do not judge whether we have the higher mind alone, poor, present?
Or perhaps (to develop his idea "Pike"), any highly developed civilization, having reached a certain threshold of reason, ceases to need new space, resources, energy, and now is developing in depth, intensity does not leave the parent star (star clusters) without any special needs?
By the way, so perhaps we do not see any traces of their activities, not only here but even in the depths of the Galaxy - concludes "Pike." Do not build a mega-super-civilizations. Do not manipulate the stellar energy, as suggested by Kardashev Dyson. Therefore we do not notice their activity. In general, they are there, but all are sitting on their "quiet of the pool." There, in the "discontent" and they "are found" billions of years!
Thus, it epitomizes the quiet fan Pool, although we do not know the mechanism of all this, but the world will somehow be arranged, that no one anywhere can not fly. And the apparent lack of shock waves is eloquently confirms!
In general, for "Pike" P2 ~ 0
And the solution of the paradox is obvious:
P1* P2* P3 ~ 1 * 0 * 1 ~ 0
And I have a strong suspicion that people who are enthusiastic about SETI, publicly or privately shared it "Schuchyu" position. In any case - tend to her. No wonder. Indeed it is this paradox best solution fits well with the very idea of searching for signals from another mind. It turns out that even the super-civilizations to expand their knowledge to share with each other signals at a distance! They need help each other! That means that we must look for such signals in order to engage themselves in "The Great Ring!
A time for us no one is going to fly, to conquer, it unleashes and for experiments on METI. After all, if the "Pike" law, the radio (or other) communication channel is the only possible source of truly priceless information from other realms of life in the universe! The world is huge, complicated, we can say is cruel for any reason. And all that we, intelligent, remains the face of this colossus - to help each other, joining the "Great Ring". We can only accept-pass each other fantastic content transmission, enriching its "quagmire" of knowledge from thousands of other "whirlpool."
Perhaps, over time, through radio channels, we will be able to travel to each other in the form of digital copies of our personalities? Is not it delightful prospect!
"Cancer" as "Pike", on the one hand, can not renounce the idea of a reasonable plurality of worlds. That is for him P1 ~ 1. But, on the other hand, the idea of "superomute" "Pike" he does not like too. Just watch "interstellar TV" on the "Great Circle" millions of years, sitting at home? Oh no He, too, like "The Swan", wants to "Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy"!
But millions and billions of light years, filled with planets of the lifeless stones or mold (which is satisfied with "Swan") - he did not need. He therefore, faced with the Fermi paradox, to bow to the recognition that the shock wave probably had long passed through us P2 ~ 1. And the world around us, they have long populated. That is, "Cancer" is ready to sacrifice "Fact 3" P3 ~ 0:
P1* P2* P3 ~ 1 * 1 * 0 ~ 0
But why then we do not know?
And then the "Cancer" is forced to retreat. They say they are here, but do not consider it necessary to us to share this YET. They are hiding! Other explanation "Their" is not observable to us, no!
Porassprosit opponent, we quickly discover that the "Cancer" is inclined to believe in UFO, in paliokontakty, in all sorts of "conspiracy theory" and natural alternative physics. After using it so easy to hide! At least, Advanced Cancer "believes in the probe Breysuella or trying to build a more or less reasonable explanation for its invisibility.
Humiliating the theory of "reserve" (that super-civilizations long since we have found, and now protected as reserves, zoo, laboratory, testing ground, plantation ...) for "Cancer" much more appropriate than a dead universe "Swan". Listen to yourself. What you choose from two inevitable? "The Reserve" or "empty Universe"? What are you comfortable? If the "Reserve" you prefer - you "Cancer".
Cancer is usually not far off the thought and naive soul. He sincerely hopes that one day you and I still take the fraternal family of super-civilizations, if we become kinder, more humane, intelligent ... and so on and so forth. In general, the perception of "cancer" of the problem SETI differs little from the perception of the believers "problem of God." It is little wonder that the position of aliens "cancer" - the most common among the simple, far from science, people.
Over the past 300 years we have learned a lot about the world in which we live. Astrophysics fairly well described the mechanics of the dead "celestial dome. But the mind is not yet inscribed in this picture. And as if we are not looking at the the 15 billion light years, the mechanics of the universe remains for us absolutely vague, while the Fermi paradox is resolved one way or another.
And so. Pay attention. In any case, you have to sacrifice something in itself. Your personal choice of the weakest, the most "unnecessary" facts "and determine your" totem ", your relationship to the Fermi paradox and the issue of extraterrestrial civilizations in general.
Of course, there are possible intermediate variants, combinations, transitions from one position to another. Even throwing. It is natural for us. But the direction of such ravings, Penrose triangle edge you most likely choose for themselves, will depend on what you are willing to sacrifice secondarily.
"Cancer" with "pike" is easy to combine a certain belief in the "higher" humanism advanced civilization. But the union with "Swan" at this position is problematic, since he bears a fairly aggressive plans for expansion, and therefore does not expect gratuitous, "Principal" humanism on the other side. But the "Swan" with "pike" easily combines sobriety, scientific view of the device of the universe of what is "Cancer", usually the problem. In fact, only the "Swan" with "pike" and can live more or less constructively discuss the problems of SETI. With "cancer," his manner of "backing away" toward the fantastic, and even mystical assumptions generally can not be a reasonable dialogue. His position neprobivaema arguments, as the position of the believer in God.
But "Swan" with "cancer" can unite the fear of the latter, that the galaxy is not quite empty, and "They" are already here! I myself sometimes willing to enter into such pessimism. Of course I'm no good for us here do not see. It is quite natural that such a coalition, "Swan-Cancer" will only amuse or annoy "pike."
It is important that's what.
As we do not tuzhilis, no one can snatch their imagination about the Fermi paradox of this damned "triangle of forces" "The Swan" - "Cancer" - "Pike."
In general, however much we did not bother, do not result in arguments in favor of his position, WHO will present there, until ...
Therefore. There is a constructive idea of a methodological nature:
Before entering into the debate over extraterrestrial civilizations, to define who you are or what position at the moment are going to take. "The Swan"? "Cancer"? "Pike"? Preferably, entering into an argument, this position immediately to designate for your opponent, so as not to break the extra copies.
If the tradition will be useful, and settle down, it can be and develop. Sage, at the regular conferences on SETI participants could pre-select a corresponding "Beycik. Then once we will see who your opponent. Mr. Smith - "pike" and Mr. Sidorov - "pike," Mr. Petrov incorrigible "swan", but Mr. Ivanov today over to the point of view "pike", strange ...
There is no doubt that harvested for "crayfish" badges will remain little demand for such activities, and if someone chooses itself just such a totem, then quickly out of thirst for scientific outrageous or under the influence of ironic mood. Apparently, the "swans" as would be the vast minority. After all, "Swan" and if you are interested in specific techniques, such as selection of a meaningful signal from the flow of radio noise, then from a purely academic interest. But in general philosophical terms, he's not willing to find convincing arguments in favor of what they have, but rather hoped that the Conference will hear ideas, confirming that they are not! Agree, a strange desire for a man who came to the conference dedicated establishment contact with an alien civilization. But to assert that the "swans" here would be inappropriate - hastily. Left to themselves "pike" will always be inclined to wishful thinking. And Swan's opposition "was and is certainly a useful counterbalance. They are in first place and try to make constructive criticism, deepening, I would say, reviving the team thinker, scientists in the field of SETI.